Penalties

The team that shoots first in a penalty shootout always wins.

Apesteguia & Palacios-Huerta (American Economic Review, 2010) reported that the team kicking first won about 60% of shootouts in their sample, attributing it to psychological pressure on the trailing side. Larger and later datasets (Kocher et al., Arrondel et al.) found the effect smaller, near zero in some samples. There is a tilt; 'always' is wrong.